广东省县域农业生产效率分析——基于2015-2019年揭阳市5县域DEA模型为例

农业生产效率提升是实现农业现代化的重要手段。本文以《揭阳市统计年鉴(2015-2019)》的农业相关数据,从县域的视角研究揭阳市农业生产效率,运用DEA模型对揭阳市5个县域的3个投入指标和1个产出指标进行实证分析。结果显示,2015-2019年揭阳市农业生产效率均属于DEA无效,总体效率提升并不明显,且各县域呈现发展不平衡的状态,仅惠来县位于生产前沿面上,普宁市的农业生产效率最低,规模报酬属于递减态势。因此,恰逢“十四五”谋划之时,对揭阳市各县域农业生产效率做出分析研究,为现阶段提升揭阳市农业生产效率提出有参考价值的建议,为广东省县域农业生产效率分析提供范本。     

Crafting customer insight: What we can learn from the revival of the vinyl record

The recent resurgence of the vinyl record and the proliferation of so-called craft and artisanal products offer unique opportunities to observe ongoing shifts in the contemporary consumer’s values and attitudes. In this article, we explore such thought-provoking market developments and their implications by contrasting them with the conventional understanding of markets and consumers. This understanding can lead to marketing myopia as it works from the utility-oriented assumption that what ultimately matters for both the company and the customer is cost efficiency and convenience. Against this backdrop, in this article, we discuss how market developments representing the contemporary consumer’s mindset prove valuable in creating customer insight that highlights aspects often obscured by an exaggerated focus on cost efficiency and convenience. We provide an alternative approach to evaluating markets and consumers that encourages companies to build their customer-centric market strategies around questions of context, authenticity, story, and resonance. This will help them narrow the gap between their market offerings and the actual wants and needs of their customer, and consequently allow them to revitalize their market.     

The aesthetic fidelity effect

Product aesthetics is a powerful means for achieving competitive advantage. Yet most studies to date have focused on the role of aesthetics in shaping pre-purchase preferences and have failed to consider how product aesthetics affects post-purchase processes and consumers' usage behavior. This research focuses on the relationship between aesthetics and usage behavior in the context of durable products. Studies 1A to 1C provide evidence of a positive effect of product aesthetics on usage intensity using market data from the car and the fashion industries. Study 2 corroborates these findings and shows that the more intensive use of highly aesthetic products may lead to the acquisition of product-specific usage skills that form the basis for a cognitive lock-in. Hence, consumers are less likely to switch away from products with appealing designs, an effect that is labeled as the ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect. Study 3 addresses an alternative explanation for the ‘aesthetic fidelity effect’ based on mood and motivation but finds that the ‘aesthetic fidelity’ effect is indeed determined by usage intensity. Finally, Study 4 identifies a boundary condition of the positive effect of product aesthetics on product usage, showing that it is limited to durable products. In sum, this research demonstrates that the effects of product aesthetics extend beyond the pre-consumption stage and have an enduring impact on people's consumption experiences.     

土地整治对中国粮食产出稳定性的贡献

研究目的:研究土地整治对粮食产出稳定性的贡献,为制定合理高效的土地整治政策,促进粮食增产稳产提供依据。研究方法:采用H-P滤波法实证分析中国粮食产量的波动性及增长趋势,然后基于C-D生产函数,分别建立趋势产量和波动强度面板回归模型,分析土地整治对粮食产出稳定性的影响。研究结果:(1)粮食作物播种面积、农业机械总动力、农用化肥施用量均对粮食长期趋势产生不同程度促进作用;农业劳动力对主产区粮食长期趋势影响显著为负,对非主产区却有正向影响。(2)土地整治面积和单位面积投资额均降低了全国及主产区粮食产量的波动程度,土地整治规模在全国和主产区的影响系数分别为-1.4162和-2.2215;单位土地整治面积投资额在全国和主产区的影响系数分别为-0.7589和-1.3509。(3)土地整治新增耕地面积对全国和主产区的粮食产量波动强度影响为正,影响系数分别为0.8018和1.3931。可能是通过土地整治新增的耕地质量较低,产出不高,导致了粮食产量波动。土地整治投入在非主产区均表现为不显著。研究结论:应继续推进尤其是主产区的土地整治项目实施,加大土地整治投资强度,建立长期稳定的投入机制,合理使用整治资金,注重提高新增耕地质量和综合生产能力,同时将土地整治投入和管理机制与农业生产系统运行机制、自然因素等有效结合,并制定差别化区域政策,以保障粮食增产稳产和区域协调发展。     

中国家庭股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响——来自CHFS的微观证据

近年来针对股市资产价值变动与消费关系的研究多采用宏观数据，难以揭示股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的细节。为克服以上缺陷，文章利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据分析股市资产价值变动对中国居民消费的影响。实证结果表明：（1）股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响总体较弱，其中市值变动的财富效应主要体现在改善性消费上，而对饮食等日常必须消费和奢侈品消费影响较小，这可能与我国居民的收入结构和投资方式有关；（2）随着年龄增长，居民的收入分布和资产配置倾向发生改变，股市资产价值变动对不同年龄居民消费的影响呈现先减小后增大的U型分布。研究结论揭示了股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的分布特征，为今后股市改革方向提供了建议。     

Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP

In addition to GDP, which is measured using expenditure data, the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) provide a variety of measures of economic activity, including gross domestic income and other aggregates that exclude one or more of the components that make up GDP. Similarly to the way in which economists have attempted to use core inflation—which excludes volatile energy and food prices—to predict headline inflation, the omission of GDP components may be useful in extracting a signal as to where GDP is going. We investigate the extent to which these NIPA aggregates constitute “core GDP.” In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise using a novel real-time dataset of NIPA aggregates, we find that consumption growth and the growth of GDP excluding inventories and trade have historically outperformed a canonical univariate benchmark for forecasting GDP growth, suggesting that these are promising measures of core GDP growth.     

Quantile regression for the qualifying match of GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting

We present a simple quantile regression-based forecasting method that was applied in the probabilistic load forecasting framework of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017 (GEFCom2017). The hourly load data are log transformed and split into a long-term trend component and a remainder term. The key forecasting element is the quantile regression approach for the remainder term, which takes into account both weekly and annual seasonalities, such as their interactions. Temperature information is used only for stabilizing the forecast of the long-term trend component. Information on public holidays is ignored. However, the forecasting method still placed second in the open data track and fourth in the definite data track, which is remarkable given the simplicity of the model. The method also outperforms the Vanilla benchmark consistently.     

Consumption,welfare, and stochastic population dynamics when technology shocks are (Un)tied

The impact of uncertainty on consumption and welfare seems obvious; because of the precautionary saving motive, higher uncertainty reduces consumption, and subsequently, deteriorates welfare. Recent several studies, however, find that this intuitive narrative is not necessarily true. This paper provides the analytical underpinnings for this. In the absence of technological progress, I find that the larger demographic shocks always reduce consumption, but improve the welfare of households. Moreover, when demographic shocks are negatively tied to technology shocks, there emerges an inverted-U relationship between the size of two shocks and consumption, and a U-shaped relationship between the size of two shocks and household welfare. These results are all characterized analytically in the framework of the stochastic two-sector growth model featuring the correlated Brownian motion process. The findings suggest that demographic policies should not be implemented with no reference to the state of technology.     

基于文献计量学的洪涝灾害研究现状及发展趋势分析

以美国科学情报机构科学引文索引数据库(SCI-E)为数据源,通过文献计量学的方法从文献数量、学者数量、文献发表期刊分布、发文国家/地区、科研机构及关键词等方面对数据库中1988—2015年洪涝灾害的相关文献进行分析,以评估洪涝灾害的研究趋势。结果显示:1988—2015年洪涝灾害在其领域内发展迅速,无论是文献总量、参与研究的作者数量还是研究内容上都随时间呈上涨趋势;洪涝灾害相关论文主要覆盖的学科类别是"水资源",Natural Hazards为发表相关论文最多的学术期刊;美国是洪涝灾害领域发文量最多的国家,中国紧随其后位列第二;学术力量方面,洪涝灾害相关研究力量以高等院校为主,其中中国科学院为该领域研究发文量最高的科研机构;通过对关键词的分析可知,与洪涝灾害相关的科学问题研究中,"洪水管理""气候变化"和"模型"是未来研究热点,将高新技术广泛使用于洪涝灾害的研究领域,控制洪涝灾害对国民经济造成的损失,有利于经济的持续、稳定和健康发展。     

Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis

Although optimal monetary policy stabilizes food inflation theoretically, empirical studies remain limited not only in the context of volumes and the estimation approaches, but are focused on selected advanced and emerging countries to the neglect of Africa where poverty and dominance of food in the consumption basket are more pronounced. We provide empirical evidence in the context of South Africa using quantile regressions. Rising food prices are destabilized even further by restrictive monetary policy; a finding that has ramifications for inflation targeting, especially given that a quarter of the country’s population is food poor.